Are you ready for some gosh darn football?
I know I am because that means another Sunday of DFS contests for NFL.
The games look enticing. I see big offenses like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Cincinnati & even the Browns and I start salivating. My crystal ball is predicting big things from these games.
But, then we have games like um, Buffalo @ Houston or Jacksonville @ Dallas which are muss less appealing. I want high a over/under from the game if I am going to take offensive players from that game. The only time I would like a low over/under is if I am taking a running back in a blowout win, or a strong defense.
Speaking of defense, how about the Bears getting an extremely nice matchup versus The Dolphins this week, I love them in my lineup this week.
But I am not going to ramble off my defense picks this week at the beginning of the article. It would mess up the flow of my article and I cannot have that.
I’m going to dive into all the games and put a one sentence excerpt about what I think.
TB @ ATL – O/U: 57.0 – Atlanta is desperate for a win this week, Matt Ryan is completely different at Home (+18.6) versus Away (-6.3), and Tampa Bay’s defense allows the highest net passing yards in the NFL.
My Pick: Atlanta
My Players: Matt Ryan, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Julio Jones
PIT @ CIN – O/U: 50.0 – Steelers offense made the Run Game a priority last week, Cincinnati’s defense ranks 23rd in NFL in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game, Antonio Brown looked very good last week with over 2x the targets of anyone else.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
My Players: James Conner, Antonio Brown
LAC @ CLE – O/U: 46.5 – Baker Mayfield is a beast, Chargers rank 26th in DVP vs WR, Jarvis Landry will have a huge day.
My Pick: Cleveland
My Players: Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway, David Njoku
BUF @ HOU – O/U: 40.0 – Houston’s defense is still one of the best in the NFL, Buffalo’s offense is still one of the worst in the NFL, avoid this for fantasy.
My Pick: Houston
My Players: Texans D/ST
CHI @ MIA – O/U: 41.5 – Ryan Tannehill has a shoulder injury to add to his poor play this season, Tribusky threw for 6 TD passes last game, Miami’s offense will fall victim to Chicago’s NFL Leading Defense.
My Pick: Chicago
My Players: Bears D/ST, Mitchell Tribusky, Tarik Cohen, Taylor Gabriel
ARI @ MIN – O/U: 44.0 – Josh Rosen has not inspired much hope as the new QB in this lifeless Arizona offense, Minnesota’s offense is really good through the air, Arizona ranks 4th in DVP vs WR.
My Pick: Minnesota
My Players: Vikings D/ST
IND @ NYJ – O/U: 47.0 – Sleeper potential here, T.Y. Hilton will be OUT for IND, IND defense allows 27.6 PPG which is 27th in the NFL, Jets Offense is coming off their best game as a team (Very Young).
My Pick: New York
My Players: Sam Darnold, Isaiah Crowell (Game-Time Decision) or Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson
SEA @ OAK – O/U: 48.5 – Seattle played the rams down to the wire losing by a score of 33-31, Oakland played the rams and got dogged 33-13, Seattle is going to destroy Oakland in a game that will be played in London.
My Pick: Seattle
My Players: Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, Seahawks D/ST
CAR @ WAS – O/U: 44.5 – Washington has about 5 game-time decisions this Sunday to almost all of their skill position players, Carolina’s offense has scored 30 points in back-to-back weeks, Greg Olsen might make his return this week for the Panthers.
My Pick: Carolina
My Players: Christian McCaffrey
LAR @ DEN – O/U: 51.5 – The Ram’s offense is the third highest scoring in the NFL with 34.6 PPG, Denver’s defense allows 26.2 PPG which is 22nd in the NFL, high powered offenses do well in Denver so Viva La Rams (Remember the KC game)!
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams
My Players: Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Jared Goff
JAC @ DAL – O/U: 40.0 – The Dallas offense has been terrible this year with only 16.6 PPG which is good for 30th in the NFL, Jacksonville just happens to sport a defense that ranks 3rd in Points Allowed with only 17.2 PPG, be ready for a defensive showdown and a low scoring affair.
My Pick: Jacksonville
My Players: T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars D/ST
BAL @ TEN – O/U: 41.5 – Baltimore’s defense is ranked 1st in the NFL with only 15.4 points allowed per game, Tennessee’s defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL with only 17.2 points allowed per game, defense is on the menu for this game so avoid for fantasy.
My Pick: Baltimore
My Players: Ravens D/ST or Titans D/ST
Boom. All 13 games right there for you to choose from. Personally I am rolling with games like TB @ ATL, IND @ NYJ & SEA @ OAK to stack into my DFS lineups this week. I would avoid the hell out of games like JAC @ DAL, ARI @ MIN & BUF @ HOU. If you have players from those teams just know they are super deep sleepers this week.
But hey, “Any Given Sunday,” right?
The stats are here for a reason. Teams aren’t just going to pull brand new offensive playbooks out of their asses.
This means teams like Dallas (16.6 PPG), Arizona (13.0 PPG), Buffalo (12.6 PPG), Tennessee (17.4 PPG), Miami (19.8 PPG), Denver (20.0), Jacksonville (20.4 PPG) & Washington (20.8 PPG) just have bad offenses and shouldn’t be touched in DFS.
Teams I want to target in DFS are the LA Rams (34.6 PPG), Cincinnati (30.6 PPG), Pittsburgh (28.6 PPG), Tampa Bay (28.0 PPG), Chicago (27.8 PPG), LA Chargers (27.4 PPG), Atlanta (26.6 PPG) & Carolina (26.0 PPG).
I really love stacking Atlanta and then throwing in some players from the New York Jets to get guys with lower ownership values who are still in a good position.
This lineup would look a little something like this:
QB: Matt Ryan ($6,800 DraftKings)
RB: Tevin Coleman ($5,400 DraftKings)
RB: Isaiah Crowell ($5,000 DraftKings)
WR: Robby Anderson ($4,600 DraftKings)
WR: Julio Jones ($7,900 DraftKings)
WR: Mohamed Sanu ($4,800 DraftKings)
TE: David Njoku ($3,800 DraftKings)
FLEX: Christian McCaffrey ($8,300 DraftKings)
D/ST: Bears ($3,300 DraftKings)
Or we can do a Pittsburgh stack with our lower ownership players being from the Chicago Bears lineup.
This one would look like this:
QB: Big Ben ($6,500 DraftKings)
RB: Tarik Cohen ($4,600 DraftKings)
RB: James Conner ($7,700 DraftKings)
WR: Antonio Brown ($8,700 DraftKings)
WR: Taylor Gabriel ($4,300 DraftKings)
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,300 DraftKings)
TE: Trey Burton ($4,500 DraftKings)
FLEX: Ito Smith ($3,100 DraftKings)
D/ST: Bears ($3,300 DraftKings)
If you want to talk about the lineups or anything else regarding this Week 6 of the NFL Season just hit me up on Twitter @DailyHitman !